近日，碳排放权交易省部共建协同创新中心彭华荣博士（第一作者）在《Energy》发表论文《The energy rebound effect of digital development: Evidence from 285 cities in China》. 《Energy》期刊是能源领域内最具影响力和权威的期刊之一，该刊目前中科院分区一区大类Top期刊，JCR分区一区期刊，影响因子为8.857。
数字发展在应对后疫情方面显示出巨大价值和潜力，已成为世界主要国家把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革的共同选择。数字发展是中国实现碳中和的关键。中国碳峰值和碳中和“1+N”政策体系提出，推动互联网、大数据、人工智能、5G等新兴数字技术与绿色低碳产业深度融合。然而，数字化发展也可能导致能源反弹效应的不确定性和风险。防止数字技术的能量反弹效应已成为实现碳中和过程中不可忽视的重要任务。
目前迫切需要评估数字化发展在多大程度上触发了能源反弹效应。本研究试图考察中国数字化发展对城市层面电力需求的影响，特别是是否以及在多大程度上导致能源反弹效应，并为中国数字化发展的去碳化和绿化进程提供政策建议。
Abstract
As an important path to realizing carbon neutrality in China, digital development may also lead to the growth and rebound of energy demand. Investigation of digital rebound effect is important to evaluate whether digital development can effectively conserve energy. Thus, this paper examines the impact of digital development on electricity consumption and its heterogeneity among Chinese cities, and further evaluates the sizes of energy rebound effect triggered by digital development. The results show that, first, electricity consumption in Chinese 285 cities increases by 7%–20% due to digital development, and this positive influence tends to increase with the increase in electricity consumption. Second, in the eastern, high-income, and high-tertiary industry share re- gions, digital development has a greater role in promoting electricity consumption. Third, the digital develop- ment of Chinese cities induces the rebound effect of electricity consumption, and even induces the backfire effect in the early stages of digital development. Finally, the energy rebound effect tended to decrease over time, with a partial rebound in electricity consumption, and the minimum rebound effect was 22%. The results highlight the necessary attention on digital rebound effect, and the importance of low-carbon digital development.
